According to three U.S. officials and European officials who are familiar with the intelligence assessments of their governments, Ukrainian soldiers have lost ground at Kursk in recent days, but they are not being surrounded by Russian forces. This is contrary to comments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.
A U.S. official as well as another person with knowledge of the situation said that U.S. Intelligence agencies, including the CIA, have shared this assessment with the White House in the last week. Trump continues to assert that Ukrainian troops in Kursk, western Russia, are surrounded.
Officials said that the U.S., European, and NATO intelligence assessments showed that Ukrainian forces have been under intense Russian pressure but are not surrounded.
Trump said that he wants to end Russia’s conflict in Ukraine quickly. Experts describe a claim made by Putin on March 13 that Ukrainian forces at Kursk had been cut off and that they would have to “surrender” or die. This was misinformation meant to give Putin leverage during ceasefire negotiations by showing that Russia offered concessions.
In a post on social media, Trump stated that he had asked the Russian President to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainians he claimed were “completely enclosed” and vulnerable. Putin stated that he’d do it if the Ukrainians surrendered. Trump repeated his claim that Ukrainian forces were “encircled”, both in a speech delivered at Washington’s Kennedy Center and a Fox News interview conducted on Tuesday.
The U.S. National Security Council didn’t directly respond to questions about intelligence assessments but pointed us to a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio along with National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. This joint statement mentioned Trump’s Wednesday call with Zelenskiy and how the two agreed to continue sharing intelligence on Kursk.
All three agencies declined to make any comments. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, denied that Ukrainian troops were surrounded. He said Putin was lying to the public about what actually happened. The Ukrainian leader admitted that his military was in a tough position in Kursk, and he expected continued attacks by Russia as they attempted to push Ukrainian troops out of the area.
The Russian Embassy in Washington and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Kyiv lost nearly all the land it gained in August when Ukrainian soldiers crossed Russia’s western frontier at Kursk. Open-source reports claim that it once controlled close to 500 square miles of land, but only now holds 20 to 30 square miles. Trump spoke to Putin on Tuesday. The Russian leader promised to halt the attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure for 30 days during that call. This promise fell short of what Trump had asked for, and which Zelenskyy said Ukraine was willing to accept.
This is part of Putin’s attempt to convince the world that Russia is winning the war, that resistance is futile and that victory is inevitable due to Russia’s superior strength. Mark Cancian is a retired Marine Corps Colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that Trump resonated with this statement.
Both sides are preparing for negotiations by adjusting their positions. The experts on the battlefield have said that although Russian forces seem to be making small advances in Kursk the March 13 statement by Putin was inaccurate.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. conflict monitor, stated on March 14, that “no geolocated evidence” had been observed that Russian forces had encircled an important number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, or anywhere along the frontline of Ukraine.
