According to a new study, space debris from orbiting rocket bodies poses a greater threat to aircraft when it falls from the sky.
According to a Scientific Reports article, while the likelihood of space debris hitting an aircraft is low, it is increasing due to the growth in the space flight and aviation industries.
Aaron Boley is an associate professor of Physics and Astronomy at the University of British Columbia and co-director of Outer Space Institute. He said that space junk comes from satellites, equipment for exploration, and other items launched into outer space by humans. Satellites are placed into orbit using rockets, but a lot is left behind.
Boley, an author of the paper, said, “Now that we are using outer space at such a rapid rate, many of the issues associated with it have become apparent.”
Boley estimated that there are about 50,000 space junk pieces the size of softballs or larger floating around Earth. Boley said that if you consider objects smaller than a half-millimeter or centimeter in size, there are likely millions of them.
The objects in orbit are naturally decaying, much of it “uncontrollably,” Boley said.
Boley stated, “When they reenter, they are broken apart and do not completely demise in the atmosphere.”
They tend to disintegrate when they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Boley explained that as the material burns, it melts, vaporizes, and becomes fine particles.
A study was conducted on the size of rocket bodies. The rocket bodies are usually massive, heat-resistant, and can cause casualties for people on land, sea, or in the air.
The study analyzed the risk based on the density of air traffic in each region of airspace using data from 2023. The paper concluded that places like Vancouver, Seattle, and the Eastern seaboard have a 25% annual chance of being affected by space debris re-entering.
The authors stated that officials would be able to use this data to determine if closing the airspace was prudent.
Boley explained, “Someone must decide whether to play the dice or to say there is such a small probability we do not need to take action. Or to avoid the cost.”
Boley said that if you close down the airspace, it could disrupt economic activity and cause safety problems by diverting flights.
It wasn’t until the Columbia shuttle disaster in 2003 when the spacecraft broke up as it reentered the atmosphere, that aviation safety was considered in the context of potential space debris strikes.
“Aircraft were flying through that debris after it had broken apart,” Boley said. “…After the fact, when there was the post-analysis, they realized that that was a big safety issue for the aircraft in flight.”
When deciding to close an airspace, the aviation industry takes space debris more into consideration. According to the newspaper, in 2022, Spain, France, and other countries closed their airspace as a 20-ton body of a rocket was about to reenter the atmosphere.
Researchers said that the rocket’s body plummeted into the Pacific Ocean. The closure caused a delay of 645 flights for 30 minutes, and some planes already in the sky were diverted.
Boley stated, “This disruption is happening and will be happening more”.
