According to the U.N. AIDS Agency’s chief, the number of new HIV infections could more than double in 2029 if American funding for the largest AIDS programs is cut. She warned that millions could die and that resistant strains of AIDS may emerge.
Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS executive director, stated that HIV infection rates have decreased in recent years. In 2023 there will only be 1.3 million new HIV infections, which is a 60 percent drop from 1995 when the virus peaked.
Byanyima said that by 2029, there will be an estimated 8.7 million new HIV infections. The number of AIDS-related deaths is expected to increase tenfold — from 6.3 million — and 3.4 million more orphans.
“We will see a surge in this disease,” Byanyima said, speaking from Uganda. “This will cost lives if the American government doesn’t change its mind and maintain its leadership,” she said, adding that it was not her place to criticize any government’s policy.
Byanyima pleaded with the Trump administration to not cut funding abruptly. She said that this had caused “panic” and “fear” in some African countries the most affected by AIDS.
She stated that 550 HIV workers in Kenya had been terminated immediately. In Ethiopia, thousands of others were terminated. Health officials were unable to track the outbreak.
She stated that almost $400 million was sent to countries like Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
She added, “We could work with the Americans to lower their contribution if they wish to.” Byanyima described the American withdrawal from global HIV programs as the second biggest crisis in the history of the field — after the long delays that poor countries had to endure in receiving life-saving antiretrovirals which were available in rich countries for years.
Byanyima also said the loss of American support in efforts to combat HIV was coming at another critical time, with the arrival of what she called “a magical prevention tool” known as Lenacapavir, a twice-yearly shot that was shown to offer complete protection against HIV in women, and which worked nearly as well as for men.
Byanyima said that the widespread use of the vaccine in conjunction with other interventions could help end HIV in five years.
Gilead is an American company that developed Lenacapavir, also known as Sunlenca, which is sold under this name.
Byanyima said that international aid had “helped an American company innovate and come up with a product or service which will pay them millions upon millions of dollars while at the same time preventing new infections in the rest of the world. The freeze of American funding was not economically logical. “
She suggested that the U.S. government should take a closer look at the situation, and realize that both parties benefit. Foreign aid accounts for less than 1% of the U.S. budget.
Byanyima said that no other country has offered to step up and fill the gap created by the loss in American aid. She will travel to several European capitals to speak with global leaders.
She stated, “People will die because their life-saving equipment has been taken away. I haven’t heard any European country commit to stepping in yet. But I know they are listening and want to see where they can assist because they care about human rights. “
