The Socialist Republic of Vietnam has taken a significant step in population policy, as reports from Hanoi indicate the National Assembly has voted to abolish the country’s long-standing two-child limit. This development comes as Vietnam grapples with declining birth rates and the looming economic challenges of an aging population.
According to reliable sources, the Vietnamese government has passed amendments that remove restrictions on family size, effectively ending a policy that has been in place since 1988. The original measure was implemented to allow women to spend less time on childcare and more time in the workforce.
This paints a concerning demographic picture for Vietnam. The country’s birth rate has been steadily declining, from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to a projected 1.91 in 2024. This puts Vietnam below the replacement rate necessary to maintain population stability over the long term.
Vietnam is not alone in facing low fertility rates in Asia. However, unlike more developed economies such as Japan or South Korea, Vietnam is still classified as a developing nation, which adds complexity to its demographic challenges.
The significance becomes clear when we consider Vietnam’s “golden population” period, when the working-age population outnumbers dependents, is expected to end by 2039. Projections suggest the workforce may peak in 2042, with potential population decline beginning around 2054. These shifts raise important questions about Vietnam’s future economic growth and social welfare systems.
Reports indicate that urban areas are experiencing even lower birth rates. In Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s economic hub, the fertility rate stands at just 1.39 children per woman, significantly below the national average. This has prompted local officials to offer financial incentives for women who have two children before age 35.
Vietnam is also contending with an unbalanced gender ratio, partly due to long-standing cultural preferences for male children. In response, the health ministry has proposed stricter penalties for sex-selective practices, including a substantial increase in fines for determining a baby’s sex before birth.
This development follows earlier reports of China’s struggles with similar demographic issues after decades of restrictive family planning policies. The significance of this trend should not be overlooked, as it reflects broader challenges facing many Asian nations in balancing economic development with population sustainability.
