Is TikTok going to be banned in the next month?
This is the question that keeps creators and owners of small businesses in a state of anxiety as they wait for a decision that could change their lives. The Supreme Court will decide the fate of TikTok, the popular app. On Jan. 10, the court will hear arguments over a new law that requires TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to cut ties with the U.S. or else face a ban.
TikTok, its creators, and their allies argue that the law does violate the First Amendment. The U.S. Government, which views the platform as a threat to national security, claims that it doesn’t.
Creators are familiar with the TikTok ominous scenarios, as President-elect Donald Trump tried to ban it through an executive order in his first term. Trump has recently stated that he wants TikTok around. However, a ban is not imminent now because the Supreme Court will be the final arbiter.
TikTok has said that if the government wins, as it did at a lower court level, it will shut down its U.S. platforms by January 19, forcing creators to scramble to redefine their futures.
We’re all freaking out. Gillian Johnson said, “I’m keeping calm, but I know that my friends are also freaking out.” She benefited from TikTok’s live feature program and rewards, which allowed creators to generate more revenue by posting original, high-quality content. The 22-year-old filmmaker, who is a recent college graduate, uses her TikTok income to fund equipment such as camera lenses and editing software for “Gambit” or “Awaken!” My Neighbor.
Johnson says it is difficult to accept that TikTok will disappear.
Many creators are using TikTok as a way to express their frustration, as they fear that the platform in which they have invested so much could disappear soon. Online communities are at risk of being disrupted. The economic fallout is especially devastating for those who have relied on TikTok to build their careers and incomes and left their full-time job.
Johnson says that some creators have even questioned whether they should continue to create content. She knows of several who are considering quitting. Nicola Bartoli is the vice president of The Influencer Marketing Factory. She said that the creators with whom she has spoken haven’t been concerned because news about a possible TikTok banning has repeatedly come up over the years and then faded.
Bartoli’s agency pairs influencers with brands.
Uncertainty surrounds the speed of the Supreme Court’s decision. The court can act quickly to stop the law’s implementation if five out of nine justices find it unconstitutional.
Trump has asked the Supreme Court to pause the ban until he can weigh in. In a written brief, Trump’s nominee for solicitor general called the First Amendment implications a TikTok banning “sweeping and troubling.” He also said that he wanted a “negotiated solution” to the problem. The Biden administration tried to do this but failed.
Some creators, while waiting for Washington to settle, are looking at alternative ways to promote their businesses or themselves. They may encourage users to follow them via other social media platforms or invest more time in producing non-TikTok material.
Johnson has already begun to strategize her next step and explore alternative opportunities. She hasn’t yet found an app that is quite as popular as TikTok but she’s started to spend more time on other platforms like Instagram and YouTube. Both of these are expected to gain financially if TikTok disappears.
A report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the creator economy, fuelled in part by TikTok could reach $480 billion in 2027.
Many creators are diversifying their social media presence because they can monetize content across multiple platforms. Many TikTok users have said that the platform, and its algorithm, have given them exposure they didn’t get on other platforms. Others say that it has given opportunities to creators from marginalized groups and people of color.
Industry analysts say that despite fears over the future of TikTok creators generally avoid making major changes like abandoning platforms until something happens.
“I am anxious, but I’m also trying to be optimistic in a strange way,” said Brandon Hurst. He credits TikTok for saving his business from obscurity.
Hurst’s sales have doubled in the past year since he joined TikTok. He has also gained more traction on Instagram than he had ever achieved. His clientele grew through TikTok’s live feature, which helped him sell over 77,000 plants. He says that his business is so successful, he employs 5 people including his mom and husband.
Hurst stated, “This has always been the only way I do business.”
Edward East, founder and CEO of Billion Dollar Boy in New York, advised that creators should download their TikTok videos into a personal profile. This is important, especially for those who are primarily active on the platform. It can help them build an audience quickly elsewhere. East added that it could also serve as a résumé for brands interested in partnering with them to advertise their products.
East advised that creators continue to post on TikTok until Jan. 19, which is approaching. TikTok has over 170 million U.S. monthly users, and it remains a highly effective way of reaching audiences.
App stores and internet service providers would have to stop offering TikTok services by January 19, if the Supreme Court doesn’t delay the ban as Trump has asked them to. Anyone who does not have TikTok installed on their phone will not be able to download it. The Justice Department said that TikTok’s users will continue to be able to access the app, but they will not be able to update it.
In court documents, TikTok stated that it estimated a one-month shutdown would result in approximately a third loss of daily users on the platform in the U.S. The company claims that a temporary shutdown will do irreparable damage, which is a legal standard used by judges when deciding whether to stop a law under challenge. The Supreme Court will decide in less than three weeks if it agrees.
