Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged as the frontrunner in the Republican primary race for United States Senate, establishing a substantial lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt, according to recent polling data.
The survey, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston in late January, reveals that 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters intend to support Paxton when Texans head to the polls in March. Senator Cornyn trails seven percentage points behind at 31 percent, while Representative Hunt garners 17 percent support. Two percent of respondents selected other candidates, and 12 percent remain undecided.
The polling data presents additional insights beyond vote intention. When asked about favorability, 72 percent of likely Republican primary voters expressed a favorable opinion of Paxton, with 22 percent viewing him unfavorably. Representative Hunt received favorable marks from 70 percent of respondents, with only 10 percent holding an unfavorable view. Senator Cornyn’s favorability numbers proved less robust, with 61 percent viewing him favorably and 30 percent unfavorably.
The survey methodology involved 550 likely Republican primary voters and an equal number of Democratic primary voters, interviewed between January 20 and 31. Pollsters established the margin of error at 2.53 percentage points.
Attorney General Paxton addressed the findings directly, characterizing the results as evidence of commanding support. He noted that the polling showed improvement in his position since September, while suggesting that Senator Cornyn’s substantial campaign expenditures had failed to translate into electoral advantage. Paxton further asserted that these funds might have been better allocated to other Senate races across the nation.
The primary contest represents a significant moment in Texas Republican politics, pitting a sitting attorney general against an established senator who has served in the chamber since 2002. Senator Cornyn previously held the position of Senate Majority Whip and maintains considerable institutional influence within the Republican caucus.
Representative Hunt, the third major candidate in the race, brings a different profile to the contest. His lower unfavorability rating suggests room for growth should voters seek an alternative to the two leading candidates.
On the Democratic side, the primary will feature United States Representative Jasmine Crockett facing Texas state Representative James Talarico. The winner will advance to challenge the Republican nominee in what has traditionally been reliable Republican territory in statewide elections.
The March primary will determine whether Texas Republicans opt to retain their incumbent senator or chart a new course with Attorney General Paxton, who has maintained a high profile through various legal battles and conservative policy initiatives during his tenure as the state’s chief legal officer.
As the primary date approaches, these numbers provide the clearest picture yet of voter sentiment in what has become one of the most closely watched Senate races of the cycle.
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