A French national earned more than $80 million by wagering on President Trump’s 2024 electoral victory through the prediction market platform Polymarket, relying on unconventional polling methods that proved more accurate than traditional surveys.
The bettor, who has become known as the “French Whale” in online trading circles, commissioned private polls in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin through YouGov, a global research and analytics firm. What distinguished his approach was the use of so-called neighbor polling alongside traditional voter surveys.
While conventional polls ask respondents directly which candidate they support, neighbor polling asks individuals which candidate they believe people in their social circle will vote for. The results revealed a substantial discrepancy. The neighbor polls indicated significantly stronger support for Mr. Trump than traditional polling methods showed.
Polymarket Chief Executive Shayne Coplan explained the rationale behind this methodology in a recent interview. The neighbor polling approach attempts to account for social stigma that may prevent voters from openly declaring their true preferences, particularly in elections where supporting certain candidates carries perceived social costs.
Armed with this data, the French bettor substantially increased his position on Mr. Trump winning the election to $80 million across several accounts approximately three weeks before Election Day. This occurred at a time when most professional pollsters characterized the race as too close to call.
“He thought Trump was undervalued, and they were confident in their research that Trump was likely to win,” Coplan stated. The bettor faced considerable skepticism from others on the platform, with many dismissing his wagers as partisan enthusiasm rather than informed analysis.
Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users wager against each other on future events ranging from sporting contests to political elections and entertainment outcomes. The platform features up to fifteen categories of markets, with questions presented in simple yes-or-no format. Betting odds are displayed prominently alongside each question and tracked over time through graphical representations.
Political elections represent one of the platform’s primary attractions, offering users the opportunity to stake substantial sums on electoral outcomes worldwide. The 2024 presidential race between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump drew particularly intense interest.
According to Coplan, the French bettor’s success demonstrates how financial incentives drive market participants to seek superior information. “If this guy was not able to make over $80 million, but rather able to make $80,000, he would have never gone through the hassle,” Coplan observed. The substantial potential returns justified the expense and effort of commissioning private polling operations.
The case raises questions about the comparative accuracy of prediction markets versus traditional polling. While professional pollsters largely forecast a competitive race with uncertain outcome, the financial stakes involved in prediction markets appeared to motivate at least one participant to develop more accurate forecasting methods.
The episode also highlights the growing sophistication of prediction market participants, who increasingly employ research methodologies once reserved for political campaigns and major media organizations. Whether such markets will prove consistently more reliable than traditional polling remains an open question that will likely be tested in future electoral contests.
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