A new national poll reveals a shifting political landscape as Democrats have established an 8-point advantage over Republicans in the race for congressional control, marking their strongest position since the 2018 midterm elections.
The survey, conducted during the ongoing government shutdown, shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined to 43 percent, down 4 points since March. Fifty-five percent of registered voters now disapprove of his job performance.
Democrats currently lead Republicans 50 percent to 42 percent on the congressional ballot, a substantial increase from their negligible 1-point advantage in March. This represents the largest lead for either party in this particular polling series since 2018.
The numbers reflect growing voter dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s performance on key campaign promises. Approximately two-thirds of registered voters indicate the administration has fallen short on economic issues and the cost of living. A majority also believe the president has failed to deliver on his pledge to change business as usual in Washington.
Perhaps most significantly, a majority of voters believe President Trump has done more to undermine the Constitution than to defend it. This finding comes as protecting democracy and constitutional rights has emerged as a top concern for voters, alongside economic issues, even as the administration pursues an expansive agenda of executive actions on immigration and other policy areas.
The government shutdown, now in its fourth month, appears to be affecting public sentiment. Fifty-two percent of respondents assign blame to President Trump and congressional Republicans for the funding impasse, though a historically high 42 percent also hold congressional Democrats responsible.
However, political analysts caution against reading too much into these numbers. Government shutdowns have historically created what pollsters describe as “unstable” political moments that tend to fade once funding disputes are resolved. The enduring impact of the current shutdown on the 2026 midterm elections remains uncertain.
Despite their advantage on the congressional ballot, Democrats continue to struggle with their own image problems. Just 28 percent of voters hold positive views of the Democratic Party, essentially unchanged from record-low ratings recorded in March. A majority of voters maintain negative views of the party as it attempts to position itself as an alternative to Republican control.
Republicans retain strong advantages with voters on border security and crime, though Democrats have closed the gap on economic issues. The poll indicates that voter enthusiasm for the 2026 elections is notably high, particularly among Democrats. When asked to rate their interest on a 10-point scale, 66 percent of voters responded with a 9 or 10.
The survey was conducted between October 24 and 28, positioning it one year before the midterm elections. Upcoming elections in New Jersey and Virginia may provide additional insight into whether these polling trends reflect a durable shift in voter sentiment or a temporary reaction to the government shutdown.
What remains clear is that the American electorate continues to express deep dissatisfaction with the status quo in Washington, regardless of which party holds power. Whether Democrats can translate their current polling advantage into electoral success will depend on their ability to offer voters a compelling alternative vision, not merely opposition to the current administration.
Related: Low-Income Families Face Winter Without Federal Heating Aid as Shutdown Continues
