A new poll shows California voters narrowly favoring a controversial wealth tax proposal, though the measure has yet to secure majority support ahead of the November election.
The survey reveals 48 percent of likely voters support the initiative, with 38 percent opposed and 14 percent undecided. The ten-point margin exceeds the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. A companion survey of Hispanic voters showed nearly identical results, with 50 percent supporting and 40 percent opposing the measure.
Proposition 40, as it will appear on the ballot, would impose a one-time 5 percent tax on Californians with net worth exceeding $1.1 billion. The measure mandates that 90 percent of revenue generated go toward healthcare spending, with the remaining 10 percent divided between education and food assistance programs. A smaller tax would apply to individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. These taxes would apply retroactively to anyone residing in the state as of January 1, 2026.
The ballot initiative emerges against a backdrop of widening wealth disparity across the nation and mounting public sentiment against concentrated wealth. Recent polling has shown taxing billionaires ranks as the most popular policy position among voters, a reality reflected in the populist messaging that has characterized the 2026 midterm campaigns.
The proposal has fractured California’s Democratic leadership. Supporters include Representative Ro Khanna, viewed as a potential 2028 presidential contender, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer, who previously sought the governorship. They argue the measure would address income inequality and help offset state budget shortfalls resulting from Medicaid reductions in President Trump’s recent legislative package.
However, Governor Gavin Newsom and Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate positioned to succeed him, have voiced opposition. Their concern centers on the potential exodus of wealthy investors and technology industry leaders from the state. The prospect of California’s tax base contracting as high-net-worth individuals relocate represents a significant economic risk.
The initiative, spearheaded by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, a prominent California healthcare workers union, has encountered resistance from other labor organizations. The specifics of the proposal remain contentious among traditional Democratic allies.
This represents the latest chapter in a broader national debate over wealth taxation. While progressive candidates championing higher taxes on billionaires have achieved electoral success in various jurisdictions, implementation has proven challenging. In New York City, a judge recently halted Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s effort to tax valuable second homes, citing procedural issues with the administration’s approach.
The California measure faces similar scrutiny. Questions persist about whether such taxation would survive legal challenges and whether the state possesses the administrative capacity to enforce retroactive wealth assessments effectively.
With 14 percent of voters still undecided, the outcome remains uncertain. The proposition requires a simple majority to pass, and the current polling suggests the race will tighten as November approaches and voters receive more information about the measure’s implications.
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