A recent statewide survey has revealed what may be the most competitive New York gubernatorial race in recent memory, with Republican Representative Elise Stefanik running virtually even with Democratic incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul ahead of the 2026 election.
The J.L. Partners poll, conducted November 9 through 10 among 500 likely voters across New York, found Governor Hochul leading Representative Stefanik by a mere three percentage points, 46 to 43 percent, with 11 percent of voters remaining undecided. Given the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, the race stands as a statistical tie.
These numbers represent a significant development in a state that has long been considered firmly Democratic territory. The polling suggests a vulnerability for the incumbent that extends beyond typical partisan divisions.
Governor Hochul’s approval ratings paint a sobering picture for her reelection prospects. Only 11 percent of New York voters strongly approve of her job performance, while 29 percent somewhat approve. In contrast, 54 percent disapprove of her leadership, with 39 percent expressing strong disapproval. Among Republican voters, disapproval reaches 91 percent, with 81 percent strongly disapproving.
Perhaps most telling is the response to whether voters believe Hochul deserves another term. A clear majority of 55 percent indicated it is “time for someone new,” while only 18 percent said they would definitely vote to reelect her. An additional 19 percent said they would probably support her reelection.
This is not the first survey to show competitive dynamics in the race. An October poll from the Manhattan Institute showed Stefanik narrowly ahead of Hochul, 43 to 42 percent, and leading the governor’s lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, by six points. That survey characterized Stefanik’s position as unprecedented for a Republican challenger in New York.
Representative Stefanik’s name recognition and favorability present both opportunities and challenges. Twenty-two percent of likely voters statewide reported never having heard of her, while 37 percent view her favorably and 32 percent unfavorably. However, among Republican primary voters, her support is substantial, with 61 percent viewing her very favorably and an additional 16 percent somewhat favorably.
Stefanik formally announced her candidacy for governor just days before this latest polling. The former House Republican Conference Chair has centered her campaign on economic concerns and public safety, criticizing the current administration’s record on taxation, crime, and the rising cost of living. She has emphasized her ability to work across party lines and has secured endorsements from a broad coalition of New York Republicans, including former Governor George Pataki, state GOP Chairman Ed Cox, and more than 30 members of the State Assembly.
The political landscape has grown increasingly complex for Governor Hochul, who has faced criticism from within her own party. Earlier this fall, she encountered public backlash at a campaign rally in Queens, despite having endorsed the Democratic Socialist candidate who would go on to become New York City’s mayor-elect.
As the 2026 election approaches, these early indicators suggest New Yorkers may be prepared for a change in leadership, setting the stage for what could become one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests in the nation.
Related: House Passes Funding Bill to End 42-Day Government Shutdown
